Pull Rates Explained: How Rare Are Chase Cards in Packs?

"Pull rate" is how often a card or rarity shows up in packs. It's the reason a single chase card can cost more than a whole booster box, and the reason chasing one card through packs is usually expensive.

How pull rates work

Each pack has slots: commons, uncommons, a reverse holo or foil slot, and a rare slot. Higher rarities replace the rare (or foil) slot only occasionally. A special illustration rare or manga rare may appear only a few times per case of boxes.

Official odds vs community estimates

• Some games and products publish odds (Magic: The Gathering often publishes collation information for booster types).
• Pokémon, One Piece and Lorcana generally don't publish exact pull rates for chase cards.
• Collectors estimate rates by recording large numbers of opened packs. These estimates vary by set, product type and print wave, so treat any single number as a rough guide.

Rarity vs specific card

Pull rate for a rarity (e.g. "a special illustration rare") is different from pull rate for a specific card (e.g. one particular SIR). If a set has many SIRs, your chance of pulling the one you want is much lower than the chance of pulling any SIR.

What this means for your budget

• Want a specific card? Buying the single is almost always cheaper (sealed vs singles).
• Opening for fun? Set a budget; packs are entertainment.
• Expected value of a box is often below its price, especially after release.

Myths

• "Pack weighing / searching works": some people have tried to identify hits from pack weight or other tells; manufacturers have changed packaging over time, and buying searched packs from strangers is a common scam risk (avoid scams).
• "This box is due for a hit": each pack is random; past packs don't change the next one.
• "Retail packs have worse odds": differences between products are often claimed but rarely proven; if anything, check whether a product guarantees certain slots.

Try it on your own cards

After opening packs, scan your hits with Rarefolio to see their estimated market value and add them to a collection. Comparing what you pulled to what you spent is the clearest lesson about pull rates you'll get. For modern Pokémon rarities, see illustration rares explained.

Frequently asked questions

What is a pull rate?

How often a specific card or rarity appears in packs, usually expressed as one in a certain number of packs.

Does Pokémon publish pull rates?

Generally no. Pull rates for Pokémon chase cards are community estimates based on many opened packs.

Is it cheaper to buy packs or the single card?

For a specific card, buying the single is almost always cheaper than opening packs to find it.

Do some packs have better odds than others?

Different products can have different guaranteed slots, but claims about better odds in specific retail packs are rarely proven.